Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Euro 2012 - Group Stage Analysis And Future Predictions

What a tournament we have had till now with as many as 14 teams still in contention before the last round matches were to be played. Except for Ireland and Sweden, each and every team could have hoped to qualify for the next round going into their final group matches – just incredible!

So I made some predictions before the tournament – some were on the spot, some went the other way – you win some you lose some :) 2GCXWN55SN9W

Group
Teams
Predicted Qualifiers
Actual Qualifiers
1
Czech Republic
Czech Republic
Czech Republic
Greece
Russia
Greece
Greece
Poland
2
Germany
Netherlands
Germany
Portugal
Denmark
Germany
Portugal
Netherlands
3
Spain
Spain
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Croatia
Italy
Ireland
4
France
England
England
England
Ukraine
Ukraine
France
Sweden


Group 1 results were on expected lines but not withstanding the last minute jitters. I was hoping the Czechs would cruise through to the quarters but the Russians had other plans. They routed the Czechs 4-1. The Greeks also made last minute amends and some inspirational performance saw them edge past Russia. All said and done you can’t help but feel for Russia, they deserved to be in the knock-outs. Overall one of the most competitive and entertaining group of the tournament – you can imagine how tough it was from the fact that every goal in the last two matches being played simultaneously was altering the equation of who would go through.


Group 2 saw tournament favorites Netherlands crashing like a pack of cards. It all started with the Danes staging an upset against them 1-0. They could never recover from the shock after that. The defeat at the hands of the Germans further lowered their confidence. They were still lucky to have a chance to qualify but they had to defeat Portugal 2-0 and Germany would have to beat Denmark. Although the Germans kept their promise, the Dutch could never deliver. Portugal on the other hand looked lack lustered in their first two matches but recovered well under Ronaldo’s leadership in the final match to easily defeat Netherlands. Ronaldo played like a champ and if he can keep his form and his team keeps supporting him, they might be in for the long haul. Germans were the best of the lot and were the only team in the entire tournament to move ahead with 9 points.

Group 3 saw Spain easily getting through as expected. They are still struggling with their attack and if they don’t sort it out in time, trouble would be soon knocking at the door. Italy surprisingly scored some goals to get to the next round. But the bravest team of the group was Croatia, they played nice attacking football, made the best of whatever little chances they had but unfortunately succumbed to some negative football by Spain. All Croatia needed was a 2-2 draw but the Spaniards chose to play their typical possession football which speaks for their skill but also makes for boring football that I hate. I am not sure how Ireland even managed to qualify. Theirs was the most toothless defense and a horrible attack – not sure what they were trying to do.

Group 4 has been the most disappointing. England deserved to be at the top and qualify. But France qualified even after losing to Sweden 2-0 in the last match. The French don’t look like a team at all that would have qualified. I think Sweden or Ukraine would have done a better job in the next stage.

So the group stage is done and now is the time for knockouts. Now is do or die for each team.

Here are my revised predictions for the upcoming matches.

Quarterfinals:

Czech Republic
Vs
Portugal

Very very difficult to choose from - I love the Czechs but their defense has been porous through out the tournament. I admire Ronaldo for his skills but he never gets enough support from his team. But if Portugal decide to play as they did against Netherlands there is no stopping them. I think Portugal will win it 2-1.

 

Germany
Vs
Greece

Germany for sure won’t take Greece lightly but if they continue with their current form, there shouldn’t be a problem. It will be 1-0 for Germany.

 

Spain
Vs
France

Judging by France’s last game performance in the group stage, Spain is going to win this 1-0.

 

England
Vs
Italy

This should be another interesting contest with not much to choose from. It could be anyone’s game depending upon how they choose to play that day. I will root for England to win this one 2-1 but Italy being an experienced team at the big stage is capable of doing quite the opposite.

Overall, here is how the quarterfinal results should look like –

Czech Republic



Portugal
Portugal






Greece



Germany
Germany






Spain



Spain
France






England



Italy
Italy






Semifinals:
  
Portugal
Vs
Spain






Germany
Vs
Italy

Spain should win the first semifinal as Portugal will eventually falter given their over dependency on one player – Ronaldo. I am not expecting Spain to be overtly attacking, they would try to secure a lead and then keep it safe, so it should be 1-0.

The second one should be more fun. Germany would like to stick to their game, keep attacking and would like to win it 2-0.But Italy might score one back, so the final score line should look like 2-1 in favor of Germany.

Finals:

Spain
Vs
Germany

This should be an epic final. Spain will try to hold maximum possession, dislodge Germany off their game and sneak a goal in. Germany on the other hand would look not to repeat their mistakes of the last world cup. They would certainly like to make amends, play attacking and positive football which is their strength. This one might just go to the wire and may be decided on penalties. I would be rooting for Germany!!

7 comments:

  1. I agree with this prediction but would be rooting for Spain in the finals:-)

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    Replies
    1. Jai Paaji, I like Spain but they are not attacking enough and I believe Germany have been played good for long and they deserve this one.

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  2. Well, I disagree with one particular predictions. I believe England is gonna crush Italy!!

    Going by the performances so far - I think the team that wins the 2nd SF will go on to defeat Spain in finals. Could be anyone - Germany or England!!

    And Dude - you like Ronaldo?? Are you serious?? Ronaldo is like a dog chasing a car - for one he will never catch one, and if he ever does catch one he doesn't know what to do with it. All he does is run like Bolt and hit like 'blind girl'... Wooooof!!

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    Replies
    1. Varun, Don't under estimate Italy - they are big stage players. The best time to get rid of them is the group stage; once past that they are extremely difficult to beat. Their only drawback is their attack and that for some reason has been working for them well in this tournament. England - they are just good enough for the EPL, haven't done much mention-able outside of it as far as I can remember.

      As for Ronaldo, you probably didn't see him play against Netherlands :D. He is unlucky to have a team like Portugal who remain uninspired most of the times. Unfortunately, football is a team sport so no matter how good you are, you need support from the rest of the team. If you look at any other successful team there is a strong support system behind the strikers and when there isn't even a Ibrahimovic or Shevchenko can't do much. Formula for Portugal is simple - keep Ronaldo at the center of you strategy.

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  3. Now that Italy are through to the finals....I am in dilemma...The 2 teams I like(for various reasons) are in the fine and not sure whom to support.

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    Replies
    1. Paaji, same here...not sure who to pick? May be Spain :)

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  4. Sorry about Germany going out...but now my 2 favorites(for various reasons) are in the final.....not sure whom to support

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